PECOTA guesses, but the REAL work begins…

Seems there’s been a lot of hub-ub recently regarding the 2010 ALW standings prediction as “figured” by Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projection system – mainly because (after 3 ‘corrections’) they have the Rangers winning the West with the Halos bringing up the rear. Whodathunk? (M’s second, btw).

Anyhoo – this sort of stuff is all Greek to me, but I think I understand this particular deal at least a little better now after listening to Kevin Goldstein (of Baseball Prospectus) with Elise on KJR tonight. He explained that the computer projections for the standings are merely a compilation of individual performance projections and obviously can’t take into account things like: injuries, career best years, career worst years, break-out seasons, etc. or, for that matter – gut feeling. So, there are a lot of things that can (and will) contribute to the real outcome.

And there’s always good ol’ Wikipedia for some additional interesting details on PECOTA ~Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm~ and how it got it’s name (hence the photo leading this post – I’d never heard of a “backronym till now).

Thankfully, much to my delight, they have to play the games 🙂

No matter what happens, as M’s pitching coach Rick Adair tells Kirby Arnold, no one is guaranteed anything and “work ethic and process” will be stressed, including “PFP” (which I assume stands for “pitcher’s fielding practice”), which for this defense-loving gal is a very good thing.

Looks to be a fun spring (YES – PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT TOMORROW!!!) full of hard work, fierce competition and, as always, a little dose of hope.

One thought on “PECOTA guesses, but the REAL work begins…

  1. Whoo!

    Now that we've seen the projections changed three times we can move on to over-analyzing spring training stats!


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